Photo : REUTERS/BBC
09 August 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #275
War in Ukraine: Day 166
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 08 August, an ammunition depot of Russia along with its special troops were eliminated by Ukraine's National Guard and Armed Forces using aerial reconnaissance and artillery strikes along with tanks. Ukraine struck the depot located north of the Kharkiv region. Soldiers conducting reconnaissance discovered a Russian base and also sighted the unloading of artillery weapons. The National Guards shared the coordinates of the Russian forces with the army. Russia and its troops were forced to retreat from the Snake Island due to constant firing by Ukraine's forces which was recorded by a UAV camera. Later, Ukraine demilitarized Russian artillery ammunition and the depot.
On the same day, the city of Sloviansk near the Donetsk region experienced a severe water shortage due to damage on water infrastructures from war. The people of Sloviansk in the Donbas region are concerned about the water shortages during winter. Since gas has been cut off from the city, only one source water pump is available. Hence, the fear of acute water shortage during winter is evident and Ukrainian officials are trying to evacuate.
Also on the same day, two more ships from Ukraine's Black Sea ports departed carrying corn and soybeans. A total of ten ships left the Black Sea ports of Ukraine after the block was removed by Russia following the grain export deal. The Sacura ship which was carrying 11000 tonnes of soybeans left the Pivdennyi port and headed to Italy. Meanwhile, Arizona departed Chornomorsk carrying 48,458 tonnes of corn to Iskenderun in southern Turkey. The grain export is smoothly run even though the attacks on Ukraine by the Russian forces continue.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 08 August, Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev claimed that the West was trying to eliminate Russia by launching an aggressive geopolitical process. He believes that the conflict between Russia-Georgia in 2008 and Russia-Ukraine in 2022 are related in a way that the west had a part in staging the disputes. He said that the US is a common player in both the conflict by providing funds, training of the army and also weapons to both Georgia and now Ukraine.
On 08 August, Ukraine's army attacked the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnepr River overnight. The bridge is a connection between the Russian-controlled Kherson region and the rest of southern Ukraine. The bridge was attacked in a similar fashion earlier where US-made HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems were used to strike launch artillery attacks.
On the same day, 700 representatives of the Zaporizhzhya region in Ukraine approved holding a referendum to accede to Russia. The regional forum for a plebiscite to be held in the city of Melitopol was signed to be organized, where the administrators suggest the referendum to place by mid-September.
Russia's defence ministry blamed Ukraine for the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant which resulted in damaging high voltage power lines and forcing the power station to reduce its output. Kyiv in turn blamed Russia for the attack and denied its part in the shelling. Russia asked the western countries that influence Ukraine to tell Kyiv to stop attacking the nuclear plant.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 08 August, a report by the UK's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) discovered that Russia would be unable to continue its warfare if the west decides to tighten export controls. Most of Russia's high-tech weapons and communication systems were dependent on west-made microelectronics. Moscow had circumvented all the sanctions and export controls to obtain said parts but if the west were to close the loophole, Russia's military power would be degraded. RUSI had discovered many west-made components in Russian weaponry through examining Russian military systems that were destroyed or captured. It said that some of the major parts were manufactured in the US, Germany, the UK, France and Switzerland. Tightening the export control will damage the Russian military as well as communication systems.
Also on 08 August, Ukraine acquired three German Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems for the first time from Berlin. The anti-aircraft systems are planned to be used to defend important infrastructure facilities in the country. The air defence systems that are operated by three-man crews, can hit targets up to four kilometres. The anti-aircraft systems were the first to be given by Germany to Ukraine.
On 08 August, the US announced another USD one billion aid to Ukraine. The Biden administration pledged that it would deliver rockets, ammunition, artillery weapons, and other arms directly from the department of defence stocks for Ukraine's army. Announcement comes after the Russian military movement was observed in the direction of the southern port cities of Ukraine to fight back Kyiv's counteroffensive. The aid includes HIMARS, thousands of artillery rounds, mortar systems, javelins and other armaments. So far, the total US aid comes to USD nine billion since the war.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 08 August, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres prompted countries with nuclear weapons to commit to their no-first-use rule. He warned the nations not to use their atomic arsenal as the nuclear arms race has resumed due to rising global tensions. Guterres appreciated the works of the IAEA to stabilize the situation in Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after attacks on the same facility. He also said that the money used in the arms race should be spent on other pressing issues such as climate change, poverty, and addressing the needs of international communities.
Also on 08 August, Ukraine demanded that the zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant should be deemed demilitarized under the control of foreign peacekeepers. The shelling near the power plant had destroyed some of the structures in the complex resulting in a warning about nuclear disaster risk from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 500 Russian soldiers and 50 pieces of military equipment were seen to be deployed at Zaporizhzhia. The plant was noted to be deteriorating in recent days. Both Ukraine and Russia traded blame for the attack on the nuclear plant. Russia’s state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported that Moscow is ready to allow a visit from IAEA inspectors to check on the power plant.
References
"Russian ammo depot destroyed in northern part of Kharkiv region," Ukrinform, 08 August 2022
Justin Spike, "Water crisis looms for eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk," Associated Press, 08 August 2022
"Shift in war’s front seen as grain leaves Ukraine; plant hit," scmp, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine Calls for Demilitarization of Occupied Nuclear Plant," Kyiv Post, 08 August 2022
"West wants to destroy Russia – former president," Russian Times, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine renews strikes on key bridge," Russian Times, 08 August 2022
"Ukrainian region announces vote on joining Russia," Russian Times, 08 August 2022
"Russia says Ukraine shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on Sunday," the Jakarta Post, 08 August 2022
"Russia highly likely deploying anti-personnel mines in Donbas, UK says," Reuters, 08 August 2022
Frank Gardner, "Tighter export controls on electronics could hamper Russia's war effort - report," BBC, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine war: US announces another billion dollar military aid package," euronews, 08 August 2022
"Ukraine receives three German anti-aircraft systems," Reuters, 08 August 2022
"UN chief urges nuke powers to abide by no-first-use pledge," Associated Press, 08 August 2022
"Calls for access, demilitarized zone at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant," Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
FRANCE
France extends waiver for five nuclear power plants to function
On 08 August, Reuters reported that French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) has extended their temporary waivers to Bugey, Saint Alban, Tricastin, Blayais and Golfech power plants. As per the waiver, these power stations will be allowed to discharge their hot water into rivers as the country prepares for the fourth heatwave in 2022. In a statement ASN said: "The government considers that it is a public necessity to... maintain the production of these five power stations until Sept. 11 despite the exceptional weather conditions.” (“France tweaks rules to keep nuclear plants running during heatwave,” Reuter, 08 August 2022)
GERMANY
Gerhard Schroder survives expulsion from party due to pro-Putin ties
On 08 August, an internal Social Democrats (SPD) arbitration committee rejected an appeal to expel the controversial ex chancellor, Gerhard Schroder. The committee said that he has not been found guilty of violating any party rules. 17 branches of the SPD had submitted their request to oust Schroder, citing his ties to Russia as damaging for the party. POLITICO reports that Schroder who did not appear for the expulsion proceedings, met with Putin twice, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While this committee has found him not guilty, the decision can be appealed at a superior arbitration committee in the SPD within two weeks. (Wilhelmine Preussen, “Gerhard Schröder survives move to boot him from Germany’s Social Democrats,” POLITICO, 08 August 2022)
German industries suffer due to low water levels in Rhine River
On 08 August, Deutsche Welle reported on the problems being faced by Germany because of the low water levels in the Rhine River. As the Rhine is an important shipping route for raw materials like grains, chemicals, minerals, coal and oil products, the low water levels have hampered industries and their production. The transport minister Volker Wissing has called for the river to be dredged to facilitate the passage of ships. Previously, Wissing had campaigned for the deepening of the Rhine between St. Goar and Mainz but now given the disruptions in the supply chain, the project might be undertaken soon. (“Rhine's low water levels hit German shipping, minister touts dredging,” Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2022)
POLAND
Popular leader refuses to make any further concessions to unlock COVID-19 recovery funds
On 08 August, POLITICO reported that Poland’s most popular leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski said that his government will not attempt to meet the European Commission’s rule of law demands any further. Kaczynski said that Poland had met its side of the deal, but the EUR 35 billion of Poland’s COVID-19 recovery funds have not been unlocked yet, even after showcasing “maximum goodwill.” However, commission president, Ursula von der Leyen maintains that the legislation passed by Poland last month to change its court system is not enough for the commission to disburse the funds. Kaczynski further accused the commission of trying “to break Poland and force it into full submission to Germany,” and said that they will not fit into the “German-Russian plans to rule Europe.” (Jan Cienski, “Poland warns it will turn cannons on the EU in rule of law dispute,” POLITICO, 08 August 2022)
THE UK
Deadline extended for the UK to respond on the Northern Ireland protocol
On 08 August, European commission confirmed that the deadline for the UK to respond to the legal action by the EU has been extended by one month upon request. The EU relaunched legal action on the protocol after it found non-disclosure of data relating to exports from Northern Ireland to the UK and failure in implementation of agreed Brexit conditions on VAT, EU customs, and alcohol excise rules. European Commission clarified that it will not accept the unilateral changes to the protocol by the UK, since the EU believes overriding parts of the deal would break international law. (Jayne McCormack, “NI Protocol: UK given extra time to respond to EU,” BBC, 08 August 2022)
REGIONAL
EU submits “final text” of the 2015 nuclear deal to the US and Iran
On 08 August, the European Union submitted a “final text” to restore Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal. EU’s foreign policy chief Joseph Borrel said that an agreement is likely to take place soon. The EU mediated talks between Iran and the US, attended by China, Russia, France, Germany and the UK, focused on technical adjustments to the text suggested by Borrel on 21 July. He said: “... behind every technical issue and every paragraph lies a political decision that needs to be taken in the capitals. If these answers are positive, then we can sign this deal.” The deal now has to be signed by Iran and the US. While the former’s initial reaction was cautious, US described the tabled draft as the “best and only basis on which to reach a deal”. (Patrick Wintour, “EU team submit ‘final text’ at talks to salvage 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” The Guardian, 08 August 2022)
Wolf population across Europe rises exponentially
On 08 August, a Swiss-based wolf-protection association Gruppe Wolf Schweiz (GWS) reported that the population of wolves in the Alps has grown by 25 per cent in a year. As compared to the 250 packs observed in 2021, more than 50 additional packs have been reported in 2022. Describing the growth as exponential, the group estimated that in the next five years the number of packs can rise from 300 to 800. GWS said: "Increased wolf population control, both preventive and reactive, will not change this reality at all… Due to the species' mobility, there would be no wolf-free areas." (Darko Janjevic, “Wolf packs spreading rapidly across the Alps, activists say,” Deutsche Welle, 08 August 2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Intense heatwaves exacerbates drought conditions and melts glaciers in Alps across Europe
On 08 August, a report by the BBC elucidated how Europe is reeling under the effects of extremely high heat. The report said that due to the rising temperatures water levels in rivers are falling thus catalysing drought conditions. This is leading many countries to introduce rationing measures for water usage. In Netherlands, stretched of the Waal River bed has emerged. In Spain, water-rich agriculture of avocados and olives is facing a crisis, as is also the case in Slovenia, where the drought is taking a toll on agriculture. In Italy, due to the drying up of the Po River in parts, a World War Two bomb emerged, which was then detonated in a controlled environment. Moreover, the glaciers on the Alps are also melting faster than expected. BBC reports that if greenhouse gas emissions rise further, the glaciers on the Alps are expected to lose 80 per cent of their current mass by 2100. (Laurence Peter, “In pictures: Drought hits Europe's rivers and crops,” BBC, 08 August 2022; “Climate change: Alps glaciers melting faster as heatwaves hit,” BBC, 08 August 2022)